Mad Men

September 1st, 2011

I was recently introduced to the cable TV series featuring Madison Ave. advertising executives set in the 1960s by recently, honestly due to my pake tendencies, the mere fact that it was recently made available on demand via netflix.  I had heard a lot about the series in general, but never really looked into it until recently.  I just finished the season 4 finale a few nights ago, which left me looking forward to the season 5 starting early 2012.  Hana is several episodes behind, so I have to be careful not to ruin the various plot lines abound in the day to day operations.

For me, I’m especially drawn to the complexity of the characters that come and go in the storyline, no matter how little or brief the side plot around the main character, Don Draper, the writers captured very well the essence of human beings living more than half a century ago, in an America very different to what we see today.  Throughout the series there is this tense nostalgia for the simplicity of the 1950s and the dread of what the future may bring.  Vietnam, Civil rights movement, stagflation and recession, break up of societal norms and values all looming in the viewers mind who have the benefit of being a witness to history. Meanwhile, the characters are dedicated to writing advertisements for consumer products reflecting the norms and values of the times.

Adding to the enjoyment of the series, we have over the years run into more than a handful of people that actually would’ve fit in much better back then as opposed to know.  It seems strange how little nuggets of culture and attitudes linger on several decades later, sometimes unconsciously.  In some aspects, I too may fall squarely in that camp, although wearing a suit and hat all the time wouldn’t quite be my speed.

It’s slightly scary at times, really how despite it being a period piece, there are several parallels to the world of Mad Men that still without a doubt exist today.   Maybe not as brash and out in the open, but the attitudes, hopes and dreams, lightness and darkness still linger in American society.  Especially in professions that command a level of societal power and influence.

Come on Irene

August 27th, 2011

Just after midnight, and the winds are really picking up now. Maybe after suffering from some news overload during the day, I started wondering whether the hurricane was going to make much of an appearance inner area after all. We seem to have dodged a bullet here, the storm took just enough of an eastern path that we are just out of the hurricane force wind range, but checking outside real quickly I can definitely say this is much more than an usual dc area summer storm.

Lights just started flickering, and there is a low rumbling outside with the wind whipping around. Some of the larger trees on our street have started to sway, increasingly more just in the past hour or so. Maybe a metaphor how thing don’t seem that different at first, but give it some time for shit to get real.

Probably will stay up at least until the eye if the storm passes the eastern shore, after that I’ve been reading, things will begin to get less intense. NYC is up next on Irene’s warpath. Manhattan in particular, hopefully folks took the evacuation warnings seriously, just in case this thing is as bad as the forecasts have been showing.

Aunty Irene Coming to Town

August 26th, 2011

Been a busy week for natural disasters, first the earthquake, and now a hurricane on its way in less than 72 hours or so.  Neither of these are very common in the DC area, I should feel more like we’re back at home.  Last time I was in the strike zone of a hurricane came while I was on Lanai a few years ago, thankfully it passed well south of us, but it was enough to make us cancel some of ocean activities planned. The time before that was Hurricane Iniki, which was headed straight for us at one point, bu then made a sharp turn towards Kauai at the last minute.

The best case scenario now sounds like we’ll get a ton of rain and wind, but nothing too serious.  the worst case scenario is that we get a direct hit, and then well that might be interesting.  Will need to do an inventory of supplies around the house and preparations in case the power goes out for an extended period of time. I remember getting ready for Iniki, when I was back at home, it seemed a lot like a camping trip, tying down loose things in the garage with a tarp, filling up the ice chests and lining up canned food, propane, and charcoal for the hibachi.

The naming of storms has an interesting twist on atlantic side, they tend to be names that are somewhat in use like Katrina, Rita, Dennis, Hugo, and Bob, while the pacific storms are more unique, Iniki, and Ewa.  I suppose it makes it a little more friendly sounding, but I have to think that it can also have a dangerous disarming affect as well.

Earthquake in DC area

August 23rd, 2011

5.8, scale tremor, just before 2pm, EST. Was sitting on my couch at home, just about to log in for work, and it felt like someone was shaking the couch violently. Went to check on the little guy, ready to grab him and get out of the house, he was still sleeping.

Kind of freaky, growing up in the ring of fire, I’ve lived through several tremors, but never while living in DC. The local news stations are talking about how unprecedented this is, bot the size and magnitude of the quake.

Updated to 5.9 now. Epicenter near mineral, VA.

Houston we have lift off

August 17th, 2011

The little guy is walking, no doubt about it this time.  No stumbling, no hesitation, no wobbling, he goes up, down, left right, sideways, pivots, backwards glancing over his shoulder, everywhere and getting into everything.  Daddy has his work cut out for him now.  That is all.

Peaches and Downpours

August 15th, 2011

Took a family day trip just out of town, to a nearby farm that let’s people come by and pick their own produce, whatever is in season at the time. We started off with yellow peaches, moved on to tomatoes, and blackberries before our bin was full, when we got back to the store to pay for things, we realized what a great deal it was. That explained the large crowd, interestingly the parking lot was fill of a lot dc and va plates, most of the visitors were actually Hispanic and Asian, I saw at least a handful of diplomatic plates and luxury cars.

Just as we were wrapping up, a huge storm cloud blew in, dropped a swimming pool worth of water on the crowd. It was refreshing, being outside getting caught in the rain, the little guy seemed both puzzled and amazed at the sight of all that water coming down at once, I realized that this was his first time experiencing a thunderstorm outside.  A few kids and adults took to running around in the rain, being that they were already soaked after getting caught out in the fields and it didn’t make a difference if they got more drenched. Something very simple and cleansing about the rain coming down, sudden and unexpected, but fully welcome.

Driving back I reflected a bit on how different the landscape and way of life seemed just a short drive from dc, and all of the crap that comes with the territory of living and working in the district. I had actually bookmarked on my phone a thread to the straw poll taking place in Iowa that day for the republican nomination, thinking that I might want to check in on it. ended up having so much fun picking fruits that I forgot I even had a smartphone at all.

Coming up on more milestones in life, need to remind myself to fully appreciate how great things have turned out so far, despite the usual and unusual setbacks that are more just another part of life. Some can’t really be considered setbacks of they open up to new opportunities in life just waiting around the corner.

Peter and Dilbert

August 12th, 2011

Recently Came across a few nuggets of wisdom from wikipedia:

The Peter Principle states that “in a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence”, meaning that employees tend to be promoted until they reach a position at which they cannot work competently. It was formulated by Dr. Laurence J. Peter and Raymond Hull in their 1969 book The Peter Principle, a humorous [1] treatise which also introduced the “salutary science of hierarchiology.”

The principle holds that in a hierarchy, members are promoted so long as they work competently. Eventually they are promoted to a position at which they are no longer competent (their “level of incompetence”), and there they remain, being unable to earn further promotions. Peter’s Corollary states that “in time, every post tends to be occupied by an employee who is incompetent to carry out their duties” and adds that “work is accomplished by those employees who have not yet reached their level of incompetence”. “Managing upward” is the concept of a subordinate finding ways to subtly “manage” superiors in order to limit the damage that they end up doing.

The employee’s incompetence is not necessarily a result of the higher-ranking position being more difficult — simply, that job may be crucially different from the job in which the employee previously excelled, and thus requires different work skills, which the employee may not possess. For example, an engineer with great technical skill might get promoted to project manager, only to discover he lacks the interpersonal skills required to lead a team.

Thus, “work is accomplished by those employees who have not yet reached their level of incompetence”.

Peter also suggested that ‘super-competence’ in an employee is more likely to result in dismissal than promotion, which again is a feature of poor organizations, which cannot handle the disruption. A super-competent employee “…violates the first commandment of hierarchical life: [namely that] the hierarchy must be preserved…”.

–Which eventually lead me to read this entry:

The Dilbert principle refers to a 1990s satirical observation by Dilbert cartoonist Scott Adams stating that companies tend to systematically promote their least-competent employees to management (generally middle management), in order to limit the amount of damage they are capable of doing. In the Dilbert strip of February 5, 1995Dogbert says that “leadership is nature’s way of removing morons from the productive flow”. Adams himself explained,[1]

“I wrote The Dilbert Principle around the concept that in many cases the least competent, least smart people are promoted, simply because they’re the ones you don’t want doing actual work. You want them ordering the doughnuts and yelling at people for not doing their assignments—you know, the easy work. Your heart surgeons and your computer programmers—your smart people—aren’t in management. That principle was literally happening everywhere.”

The first time I heard of the Peter principle was during my first job out of college, my boss at the time used it as a humorous explanation to why middle and upper management could at times seem hopelessly deadlocked, and at times totally incompetent to make key management decisions, even in times of fiscal crisis where decisive leadership is called for.  It was an interesting concept, that over time as an unintended consequence, you end up with the level of incompetence of individual workers being directly correlated with the higher pay and fancy sounding titles.

The Dilbert principle I think actually is much more on point, but it is almost like a symptom of an institution that has gotten so deteriorated that it can’t even operate rationally, let alone efficiently.  Then instead effectively managing incompetence by moving people to positions that they are a better fit for, or by training or disciplining the problem, you just push it aside in the most perverse way, through a promotion.

I’ve actually observed and witnessed both of these up front and personal. Had some managers so insanely incompetent that I was left scratching my head as to how the hell they got promoted to management, knowing that at one point they were in my position, yet over time they seem to have forgotten even the simplest aspects of the job entailed.  I’ve also seen individuals that are rewarded for having skills at negotiating office politics to their favor as relative to possessing actual skills relevant to the work, but they get the token rewards – no real power other than a fancier sounding title, and a nominal pay raise.  When systems start acting in these ways, there is a major hit to workforce morale for the rest of the workers in the system, as it flies contrary to what most workplaces like to promote as how promotions and bonuses are handed out, based on the individual doing a good job, and being good at what they do.  The worst is when I’ve experienced a mix of both an incompetent manager that has some real power, and they resist being “managed upward” .

Together, these principles pretty much sums up one of the critical flaws of so called performance-based / merit-based compensation systems, or meritocracies.  The naive assumption is that in the best interest, institutions would want to strive for greater efficiency, producing better goods and services for their customers.  Under this theory, anything or anyone who gets in the way of this goal should be reassigned or replaced, especially policies that erode morale.  You want to motivate your workers with incentives, namely higher pay and bonuses.  However in reality the self-enforcing nature of the system or hierarchy itself, which is a form of corruption at the institutional level.  Hence, what promotions are really looking for are to a varied extent, conformity to the norms of the institution.  Or more importantly, the perception of upper management to the individual’s ability and willingness to conform to the norms of the institution.

Over time things degenerate to the point where system is spending a lot of time managing the individuals that have risen to their level of incompetence with more and more promotions, instead of trying to capitalize on their relative strengths and recasting them in the most beneficial position in the company, in other words, truly developing them.  If this continues on long enough it becomes ingrained into the culture of the institution, inefficiency, incompetence, favoritism, corruption becomes the status quo, the unspoken rule.  Outsiders, reformers, or just newer, motivated workers coming in are then handicapped from making any contributions that might have been a net benefit.  Thus, you don’t get very far in an institution or system by talking or promoting change.  It does make for a good campaign slogan though.

Maybe a solution is to approach promotions and pay incentives differently, keep the pay increases the same, but maybe demote the individuals to their level of competence.  Stop referring it to a demotion, rather make it a transfer, or repositioning.  For those that have a knack for office politics and ass kissing, but lack the core work skills and management skills, maybe capitalize on their skills into marketing and public relations.

Markets not Happy

August 10th, 2011

Been a rough couple weeks so far following the aftermath of the debt ceiling crisis which proved to be more political theater once again.  Late last week S&P broke the trend of the rating agencies and actually downgraded the US, and then it seems like all hell has broken loose in the financial markets, down 4%-5% one day, and then a quick retrace the next.  Exchanges around the world having technical difficulties due to high volume, governments stepping in to halt trading, or to ban shorting particular stocks or sectors, calls for increased margin requirements, shares of large well known banks getting slaughtered in a matter of minutes.  Its feeling like 2008 all over again, but in many ways worse.

The next looming political battle that will be sure to cause even more uncertainty in the markets is the 2012 budget showdown, which evidently will impact the newly formed deficit reduction committee of 12 congresspeople, at least make their job much harder with all of the distractions that will come from #3 budget battle in 2011.    The downside risk for us as a federal employees is an even greater possibility of a shutdown coming in the end of September, or if the new debt committee is unable to come to an agreement, an across the board cut to all budgets, coupled with a very volatile stock market.  I’ve been feeling like a storm has been brewing for some time now, and it seems like its just getting started.

All in all this doesn’t make for much of a relaxing August, which has traditionally been the time of year where we can take a quick break before a busy fall season.  We decided to try and take it easy by just staying around town, taking the kid out and about. We had talked about planning a trip home, but that got scaled back to a short road trip in the area, and then eventually nixed entirely to cut down on costs.

Meanwhile on more happier news, the little guy has started walking.  I’ve noticed that he had already developed the leg strength and balance to stand on his own, but hadn’t realized it just yet.  Then he just decided one day it was time and now he can’t stop standing up and stomping around the house, hands in the air and grinning ear to ear.

Delayed Vote, Interesting Debate on the Floor

July 31st, 2011

I came across this linked C-SPAN clip from one of the economic blogs that I’ve been reading since the great recession came to a head in late 2008 when everything and anything was seriously FUBAR when it came to the financial and politcal state of the country.  I remember appreciating the authors candor to how seriously fucked up things were at that time, and how the policy fixes being crafted at the time ran the risk of putting us in a situation where we would be seeing the same old shit again in just a few years time.

The clip itself features two distinguished senators from both sides of the the aisle actually debating  some of the more underlying, but arguably more meaningful aspects of the ongoing debt ceiling debate.  One of them has come up in past conversation with friendly D-bags over the years, mostly with scorn to his cost-cutting ways.  The other, was once a candidate for the presidency, who many voted for out of default, not out of any meaningful admiration or inspiration.

This clip which I’m sure won’t see the light of day on any major cable news network does raise the question to what is really going on in Washington DC these past few weeks.  Are we really talking about meaningful reductions in government spending or are we just hearing another episode of partisan political theater to prevent our elected officials from making the decisions that are too politically difficult to make?

Flashbacks to 2008, how many hill staffers were put in a hard place answering overwhelming public outcry something like 1000:1 against the bailout of wall street while knowing their respective member had already made up their mind to go along with the leadership?  How many of them have wised up to the reality of the power structures in this country today and how many are still living in fantasy land?  I’m pretty sure that in the next 48 hours there will be some deal to raise the debt ceiling, this current battle is more smoke and mirrors, I’m more concerned with what reality might be waiting for us around the corner, one that won’t give a shit if we  consider ourselves democrat or republican or independent.

Austerity Begins at Home

July 30th, 2011

Another day spent watching this train wreck unfolding in DC I got to thinking that part of the problem is that both the causes of our current debt situation and the proposed solutions mirror closely to how many of us approach our personal finances. The various parties involved are starting to resemble a dysfunctional family bickering about how to make the latest credit card payment. Many Americans are already in a hole financially when it comes to their personal finances that the solutions being proposed sound more reasonable than not. Basically, get a new credit card to roll over the debt to give us more time to figure out how to pay things off. Rely on the recent hard times to justify why this increase in the credit line is rational.

We have become a buy it now, pay for it later society that relies totally on credit. Not just in the form of consumer credit card debt, but in the form of mortgages, auto loans, student loans. Further, debt is so universal part of daily life that is in fact a marketable asset through the securitization process that to make cuts so severe and too soon would crash the financial system as we know it.

This reliance goes far beyond the access to credit, but to reliance on the systems that revolve around it. Even those who carry no balances on their credit cards and pay off their bills every month, are relying that the transactions will go through without interruption. same goes with those who relying on electronic payment of bills, or those who believe they are adequately diversified in their investments.

That’s the message I’ve been hearing over and over again, and to the most part it makes sense to the academic side of me, the practical side of me has been rejecting this for quite some time now. These past few years have confirmed my belief that the average family in this country needs to prepare themselves not only to survive financially, but to prepare for long periods of hard times. Its better to have a number of lifelines or backup contingency plans in case the things that aren’t supposed to happen actually do.