Kaulapi World

Turkey day come and gone, and its back to studying. I keep telling my self that this will be my last holiday season spent buried in the books, but it doesn’t really help much on the stress relief factor. This year we invested in a brine bag and some seasonings for the turkey, I think it made a big difference than in our past attempts. I also did some honing up on my carving methods and was able to clean up the turkey pretty well. Practice makes perfect I suppose.

Who knows, another middle eastern war in 2009? I’m still trying to figure out how we’re going to pay for all of this. And find the fresh troops. And prepare for the eventual blowback.

The fall season is progressing along, been busy at work and at school. For the most part I’m enjoying my classes, my unincorporated business organizations course is giving me more perspectives on the operations of small businesses and partnerships. Definitely opens your eyes to what kind of responsibilities, legal and financial headaches, really, owning your own business has. In my Remedies class we’re covering the bottom line of a lot of cases that we flew over in con law, property, and contracts, mostly going to the most central question of all, that is after all is said and done, after the plaintiff wins his case, how does the court proscribe the appropriate remedy to make the plaintiff whole again? And more tricky, when, if at all does the Defendant need additional punishment for the wrong?

Been keeping a wary eye on the market, it’s getting pretty depressing watching it rocket up and down. Since the brutal crashes from a few weeks ago, the market has seen drastic ups and downs, close to 9% swings, heavy volatility all around. It’s become a sick ritual getting up at 4am, getting ready for work, only to see the London stock exchange futures way down, and the Asian markets wrapping up another down day of trading. Been spending a lot of time it seems, sitting in my cubicle at work and getting distracted by the DOW and S&P way down in the red, highly caffeinated talking heads talking about investment strategies, screaming at times, for calm in the markets. Meanwhile a lot of small investors are quickly taking their life savings out of the market, apparently deciding its too dangerous to play at all.

Then a few days later, a crazy rally, usually as a result of some optimistically spun economic report, or announcement from the government that there will be another bailout. It’s really hard to tell what is up and what is down, what and who to believe really.

Whatever gains I had preserved about a year ago due to some luckily placed re-allocations in my stock holdings are quickly dwindling, percentage-wise. For the time being I’m glad that I’m gainfully employed, and not involved in any variable rate debt or consumer debt. Due to this insane housing market we’ve been seeing for the past few years, I held off on saddling down a mortgage, a decision that I’ve come to appreciate again and again. There is a matter of some student loans, but I was able to lock about half of it at a very low interest rate through consolidation about a year ago. I have been keeping a wary eye on our finances, planning out different scenarios and what we would do. For now there doesn’t really seem like there’s anything we can do. Just sit and suffer.

In the meantime I’ve been keeping an unofficial log of spare change I’ve been coming across walking around the city. I’ve been tracking it down loosely on my paper calendar at work. It’s pretty surprising how much change people leave lying around. So far in the past month I’ve found at least a few pennies a day, with the occasional dime or quarter. I’ve also found a $5 bill, and a metrocard with $20 on it. I guess when times are tough, you try to do what you can.

More turmoil in the markets, it’s becoming like a bad dream, the US market takes a hit, and then at 9:00pm the Asian markets take a hit, and then the European markets take a hit in time for the US again. Something like 21% drop in the DOW over the last 10 days, despite the talk of this not being a crash, it’s looking pretty ugly.

All of this has been a big distraction from the election, especially since it seems like neither leading candidates are offering anything by means of a realistic solution. I suspect that neither of their campaigns anticipated any of this to blow up in their faces, especially not right before November. I still maintain that some understanding of finances and economics should be a quality that we look for in a presidential candidate. Whoever wins will have his work cut out for him, that’s for sure.

Been a few crazy weeks in the financial world and the markets what not. Discussing the bailout has been a nervously recurring conversation topic around the office ever since the news first broke that the America is well, headed towards bankruptcy? Yet somehow we continue to think that borrowing or printing another $850 Billion dollars to bail out the troubled financial corporations on wall street is the best solution. Depending on who you talk to, it seems like the conventional wisdom is that the bailout or “rescue” bill although it sucks, is a necessary evil. The scary thing is that nobody in support of the bailout has any clue on how this is all going to play out, let alone where we are headed. I can’t help but wonder if people had the benefit of additional information and stopped to digest the recent turn of events and really question them that maybe they wouldn’t be too quick to capitulate to what might be a historic change in the structure of our constitutional republic. That is, whatever is left of it.

And now with the bailout signed into law, the American taxpayers and middle-class are left holding the bag.

Reading up on pictures and reports from the aftermath of the hurricane that hit SE Texas this past weekend. It’s amazing at how much damage the storm surge did to taking out entire towns along the coast. One section of Galveston looked like a bomb went off, with just vertical wooden planks standing up, everything else is pretty much swept away.

Events like these serve as a reminder to my own preparations for a natural or man-made disaster. Call it the old scout in me, but I’ve made it a point to make some kind of preparation, although its a modest effort overall. Over the years I’ve accumulated a small cache of supplies, a good supply of canned goods here and there, cooking oil, non-perishable grains (rice, beans, lentils) a butane stove and extra fuel, freeze dried camping food, candles, batteries, a few MREs, and a handful of stack-able water cans. Most recently I’ve added a KAIO shortwave radio equipped with 4 sources of power (AC, batteries, hand-crank, solar). Depending on the prognosis of the disaster when it hit, at least these supplies could last a couple of weeks, maybe longer with rationing.

For what its worth, I thought I’d make it a point to make more regular posts at least for my crazy finals prep week(s) It sort of allows a mental break from reading case law. I’ve been fortunate enough to have a few days advanced leave from work due to my trip going over the weekend. I usually plan to take some leave around this time of year months in advance, but it seems like more often than any extra time to prepare is welcomed.

Looking back to my political compass and mindset from the last presidential election a couple things haven’t changed at all. I’m still looking for a truly anti-war candidate, pro-civil liberties, and pro-fiscal responsibility and pro-social responsibility. What has changed since 2004 is my opinion on the way to achieve populist goals, and to what extent the “noise” in the political discussion has confused us to which party or which ideology promotes the values that I believe in. Sometimes its better to keep a healthy level of skepticism whenever ideas are reduced to sound bites and one-liners. The party who speaks about limited government in actuality becomes the big government spenders, the party of civil liberties becomes the party of pro-war party, and the party of warrant-less domestic spying.

Raining all day, this morning, afternoon, and tonight in the district, it seems like this time of year we’re stuck right in the middle in between winter and spring, and its really hard to tell whether its going to snow or rain. Its really too warm for ice, but cold enough to make you shiver on your way home late at night. Either way its soggy and humid, be sure to pack an umbrella and watch your step. In the meantime the sakura are blooming all around with a reminder that spring is just around the corner, and then theres the heat of summer to look forward to.

In other news, Badgers get upset by the cinderella and crowd favorite of the tournament, Davidson behind a hot shooting Curry. I watched most of the sweet 16 game and was very impressed with the intensity that Davidson brought to the court. Pretty bummed that they weren’t able to keep it going against Kansas after beating Wisconsin pretty handily. Now we’re left with a first time ever 4 top seeded final four. Blah, boring. I guess theres always next year to look forward.

Close to the end of March and things are picking up as usual, both on the school and work ends. Looking like I’ll be attending a few conferences for work in the upcoming months, should be good to get out of the office for a change. On the school front I’m coming up on my last push month before finals, looking like it’ll be pretty busy from here on out. Doing some independent research on my own, have to say that I enjoy it a lot more than classes, although it is a lot more challenging since a lot of its well, independently driven. I think maybe after so many semesters of being force fed law its a different change of pace trying to find different angles and theoretical solutions to legal problems. In doing the literature review I’ve been pretty impressed with the level of legal analysis and arguments that have already been made and been published, a lot of them show the amount of time and effort that was probably put into coming up with them.

This has been a tough reminder about the costs and benefits of working on a degree during the evening while holding a full time job. I’ve gotten the full dose of the argument that getting real-world experience simultaneously is irreplaceable, but I think its every once in a while I get more than 4 hours of sleep I wonder whether it puts you in a position of being too stretched out. The main factor that has made me convinced that this has been all worth it is the financial situation and forecast, I’ll be coming out of school well below the average debt load, both the reported average and some of the estimates I’ve heard anecdotally. I don’t envision that I’ll be bound by any golden handcuffs so to speak, no 6 figure debt estimates like I’ve heard from some old classmates that decided to go into other fields like academia or medicine.

Knowing that these plans worked out more or less is worth some peace of mind, or relatively speaking at least. I’ve been keeping a cautious eye on the state of the financial markets and housing bubble/crash ever since moving out here back in 2004 when the market was really taking off and everyone I knew was saying buy, buy, buy before you get priced out. partly out of the reality of my situation, being right out of school, with little savings to boot, other part of my sense of the situation that it isn’t smart to take on interest-only, adjustable rate loans on a $600,000 condo or $900,000 3 bedroom townhouse, no matter what the expected appreciation rate was, and no matter the assurances from an industry expert that I could qualify with current credit and modest government salary. After crunching some numbers, I decided it was better to rent, save, and wait to see what happened. My gut said that the prices would eventually have to come down, at least to a historical average, although I had no idea when it would happen. I also reasoned that the low interest rates were temporary, as with any monetary cycle, and then when they did increase, the shocks to the holder of the mortgage would be pretty steep. an increase from 2% to 4% would represent a doubling of a monthly interest only payment, and unless my income was likely to double on a monthly basis, this was a very stupid financial deal to accept. In the meantime I reasoned that if prices didn’t come down, then the new reality is that nobody can afford to own without continue to rent and save until a combination of our salary and savings would increase to a point that we could buy something outright, or with at least a hefty down payment.

Somewhere around 2006 I starting coming across various blogs and websites that are out there that were offering an alternate opinion to what I was hearing in the main stream media about all the middle class, self-made tycoons of real estate investments, more along the lines of what I was thinking, that all of the appreciation and speculation was imaginary, and doomed to fall eventually, and maybe fall hard. They were all really good about poking holes in what were mostly absolute statements, and raising good questions about the economics of these business transactions, many of which were never raised by the mainstream media.

Now the latest trend in news stories revolve the ongoing proposals to bail out people who are stuck in depreciating real estate assets and resetting mortgages despite all of the paper-success of recent memory. I often feel like I’m in Econ 101 again reading about the pitfalls of moral hazards and individuals ignorant of their own risk curves, many of the recent news reports have talked about “average” Americans who are finding themselves suddenly in hard times financially in the recent downturn. There are a few things that are similar in each of these stories, first is that the individuals are living paycheck to paycheck, even making a salary that is well above the national average when some event comes along (sickness, layoff, mortgage reset) and they are unable to cope because of their lack of any savings whatsoever. Secondly there is this inability or unwillingness to face the shitty reality of the situation and make some tough financial decisions (sell the house, get another job, go on a budget), and finally there is always this call to the government to bail them out, as if they had no control over the situation.

Unfortunately it seems like too many of us have gotten so used to the assurance that a lifetime of debt is normal and sustainable both on the personal and macro levels that when it comes around and bites us in the ass it really hurts and we are unwilling to deal with it without some reflection and self sacrifice. Don’t know for sure what is around the corner, but I’m not too optimistic overall. The volume of the message that all of this is unsustainable in the long run is getting louder with each multi-bullion dollar bailout of a bank, each FED rate cut, each report of housing prices crashing and industry layoffs.

Badgers make a sweet 16 run, and are matched up with the tourney’s cinderella 10-seeded Davidson, who knocked out area favorite 2-seeded Georgetown for a shot at the elite 8, and final 4. Seems like de ja vu from the last time Wisconsin made it this far, there was talk about them lucking out playing lower seeded teams all due to a lot of upsets in the bracket.

Another busy few weeks between posts, mostly been bogged down at work wrapping up some things here and there and everywhere. I ended up trying to beat the clock showing up a few hours earlier than usual, catching the 1st or 2nd train into the city, and staying a few hours later, it became a new paradigm for me to leave and get back home in darkness. At least I’m fortunate enough to have a cubicle next to a window, otherwise I wouldn’t see the sun at all these past few weeks.

Meanwhile march madness is in full swing, Badgers are back in the big dance, after winning both the Big Ten regular season, they dominated the Big Ten tournament and got a 3 seed in the Midwest bracket of the NCAA. I have a feeling that they’ll go a lot farther this year with the big man center back in commission. Last year they were pretty tough, but had injuries down the stretch, ended up getting upset by UNLV in the second round.

Been about a month between actual entries, once again life gets busy and there hasn’t been too much time to stop and actually write something down. Had a good trip out west, will have to write about that with some pictures when I get around to it. Meanwhile life goes on I suppose, I’m getting pretty tired of the daily grind, especially when lately it seems like its much ado about nothing at all. Its an ongoing struggle seeing and learning one thing in school, and then seeing the opposite at work, sometimes vice versa, either way it can be either uplifting or discouraging. The study of law is a different animal, in some ways its hyper theoretical, studied in a vacuum, just like other ivory tower disciplines. In other ways its quite real and hard hitting, when it comes to basic procedure and due process. At the same time work has the theoretical process on how work is supposed to go, contrasted with the imperfect reality of how things play out and how people actually interact. I have to say that I’m quite proud of how I’ve been able to balance both day work and night school, so far neither has really intruded into the other one in a negative way, mostly because there has been so much overlap between the two. It is discouraging sometimes when it feels like I’m the only one that really sees it though.

There is something worth mentioning that my generation has been the beneficiary of the one of the longest bull markets, by some estimates since 1982, meaning that we’ve never had a period of economic slowdown, never had a tough period for finding jobs, never had anything major barriers to access to credit. Both have contributed to a decent and increasing quality of life, either from actual income, or more perceived quality of life from cheap credit at low interest rates. As businesses start tightening their belts and laying people off, as banks stop giving out loans without ample capital or credit ratings, this will ultimately result in a shift in the American way of life as we currently know it, a shift that I wonder we are all adequately prepared for, both financially and psychologically.