Kaulapi World

Example of DC cynicism: Whatever the crisis is facing the economy, the powerful elite are “handling it” in the form of closed door meetings.  Regardless of which political affiliation you find yourself cheering on realize that they have too much at stake to disrupt the status quo, so ignore the rhetoric you see on the tv and print, recognize its all a political charade.  Once they get the deal done, it’ll be back to normal, you can continue partying, shopping, watching ESPN and reality TV.  To me this demonstrates a bizarre mixture of blind faith to compensate and distract from a collective helplessness to forces that are bigger and unseen.  The cynicism is more alarming to what it really says: that since most of us are so insignificant to the powers that shape our world, really we are all expendable.  No matter how high you can soar, within a chain of command or bureaucracy, titles, position, power, responsibility, connections, salaries can be taken away from you on a whim, by a single individual, or group of individuals in a closed door meeting.

Been on edge for the last few days, really for the most part of this year. Some of it has to do with the looming budget situation which I may have been overloading myself with reading and my own style of analysis.  But something about this latest round of political theatrics has me wondering if there is something that a lot of us aren’t thinking about.  Maybe it is fact that we as a country even need to have a discussion about the deficit at all.  The established school of economics is that deficits don’t matter, the last 100+ years of fiscal and monetary policy have made the country very wealthy and prosperous.  We have a number of societal safety needs that were spawned from the great depression to ensure that nobody will be left behind, nobody will starve or go homeless.  The established school of political science has said that are the remaining military and economic superpower, champion of the cold war, and policeman of the world.  We are not Greece.  Then why are we being held captive by the bond raters and growing CDS spreads?  The urgency of some of the commentary recently kind of shatters this illusion of life that a lot of us have grown accustom to, that maybe we really are out of money and out of time.

The large majority of folks in this town are just along for the ride on various levels. This is a company town after all, and the federal government is it. It doesn’t matter much if you are a  federal employee, a contractor (revolving door and double-dipper), lobbyist, non-profit advocate, university employee, or a private sector employee whose business relies on federal contracts. Pretty much everyone in this area is either directly or indirectly dependent on the federal government operating.  I have to include myself to this, to a certain extent, however I refuse to keep my eyes closed to the writing on the wall, and just assume that everything will pass, and it’ll be business as usual.  Even if this is just another example of beltway theater, I don’t want to be caught by surprise should things really get interesting.

Over the years I’ve tracked our personal finances both in terms of investments and day-to-day case accounts as short and long term budgeting tool.  I made a visual marker for each financial milestone on my spreadsheet, green for raises and bonuses, red for bills, one-time payments that don’t come very often.  All of this debt talk has made me draw sort of a financial line in the sand as to when we might have to face the reality of not getting a paycheck.  Given the ongoing uncertainty in the past few weeks on the debt ceiling, I’ve resorted to drawing red lines for every month for the remainder of the year.  Now my once colorful spreadsheet is covered in a sea of red.  Fortunately this being a digital file, I can clear some of the red to clear if things somehow start getting better.

For the longest time that I can remember, I’ve always had very lucid dreams. Lucid meaning that the dreams are so real that I sometimes have trouble telling whether it is a dream or real life. I also dream a lot, even when I’m on a shorter sleep schedule of 3-4 hours. I’ve had 15 minute naps that have gone on for hours and days in the dream state, when I wake up I mentally scramble to find out what day it is.

For several years now I’ve kept a fragmented dream log of sorts, some of which has made it on this online journal, with certain cryptic additions of course. Sometimes I write something down more out of the necessity of recording it before it slips into the subconscious again. For some reason I just recalled tonight a recurring theme that comes up in many dreams, so often that I have used it as an indicator or reminder that I am in fact dreaming.

One observation that I recently recalled is that I seem to have a hard time controlling my handwriting in my dreams. Usually the context is coming across someone interesting, either a complete stranger, or a long lost friend or family member, and in parting we try to exchange contact information. I have a hell of a time writing down a simple email address or phone number no matter how hard I try. Likewise, I seem to have trouble locating a current business card that I usually keep in my wallet. A few dreams I have come across old cards with incorrect information, or interestingly, other people’s cards that I have collected over the years.

Another theme that comes up occasionally is finding money, bills, coins, checks, especially counterfeit currency of odd denominations. The quality of the bills varies greatly in different dreams, some look a lot like US currency with number changed, others are just pieces of paper with someone’s note on it and a promise to pay the bearer of the note at a latter date. The value of the notes vary, but $12 and $14 come to mind in a dream I had a long time ago. I recall knowing that something is wrong with the bill, but it is not as obvious to other people I encounter in the dream. My mood in these dreams ranges from bewilderment that I am holding counterfeit currency to elation that I may be holding a rare piece of US history.

I suppose these observations within the dream state is like a dream itself – cryptic, symbolic, and ridden with hidden meaning.

I recently bought a mid-range, compact pc, or “net top” as I’ve seen some folks call it for a few hundred bucks. I originally intended it to be a transitional computer to eventually replace the aging 3 year old laptop, or to make it a multimedia station for the living room. So far its performed so well connected to my HDTV in the living room that I’ve decided to keep it there for the time being.

For me its been a totally new concept in utilization of technology similar to how the iPad has changed my view of using a computer at home. The wireless connection is fast enough to make streaming netflix, hulu, and youtube worthwhile, even the HD streams come through fine. I’ve been toggling between using the TV speakers via HDMI and the external speaker set with a subwoofer, for now I think I’ll stick with the HDMI to minimize the number of wires going out the back.

The biggest benefit has been the upgrade for teleworking, using the HDTV as a monitor has been a big improvement for my work, which involves working with multiple electronic documents and spreadsheets open at the same time. the HDTV serves as a large desktop over a VPN connection. Although I’m only committed for a few hours of telework per day, the new system actually makes it easier to get what I need done from home. I’d even go as far as to say that for certain projects I may be more productive in my living room now instead of at the office. A few days ago I was able to tune into streaming video feed on a conference i would’ve otherwise had to attend in person, and was able to continue working on a project at home while keeping an eye on the little guy.

It’s also been a big multiplier since we still don’t have cable. PCTV streams and other blunt options allow for some video streams of varied quality, but it still serves their purpose. Really at this point the only cable channel I really am interested in is ESPN, which I can get partial coverage online through my service provider. I continue to be impressed with the expansive service by netflix, wish I had been more gutsy in investing in their stock back in the 30s.

There have been many “first years” that I have had to reflect on in my short life, most of them have been tied to academic programs, first year of college, grad school, law school, and most recently, the first year life being a non-student. However, this recent first year as a father is probably the most significant by far both in terms of life changing perspective and new experiences.

Although it is cliche to say that time goes by fast when you’re busy, this year blitzed by coinciding with each milestone the little guy hopped over. Looking at pictures I remember when he was just a little baby home from the hospital, sleeping most of the time, immobile and more or less oblivious to the world around him. Now I’m literally chasing him around the house while he explores every little corner and every little thing he can get his hands on. Latest thing is that he’s started to do figure eights around me when I’m sitting down.

Personality and temperament are starting to show much more, he is an extrovert, likes to play and interact with people, even with new people he may be shy at first, but quickly warms up. He seems to prefer physical contact even if he is playing with something else, he’ll rest his foot on me, or lean against my leg. He seems very confident with his body, pushing/pulling things out of the way instead of going around them, or simply climbing over things head first. When he sees something he wants, he makes a beeline for it and isn’t afraid to voice an opinion about it. He also has a little rascal side to him, definitely not afraid to test the limits of his mom and dad.

The other most significant day to day change has got to be the work schedule that we’ve adopted in order to be able to take care of the little guy. I’m undeniably a morning person now, I find myself waking up close to 4am every day including the weekends. I’ve found that I am extremely efficient and productive in the early morning hours, and it has shown at work. Its worked out so well that even when we decide to transition off of this schedule, I may try to keep some of it in place.

Taking a little break from work, thought the moment was so random but memorable that it was worth an entry. The little guy has camped out under my chair while I’m logging into my work email from home. He has gotten especially mobile in the last month or so, crawling everywhere, and pulling himself up to stand on everything, chairs, tables, the bed frame, the couch, and his daddy’s shirt. He seems to enjoy picking up magazines and pieces of paper and holding them while he is lying on his back as if he is reading them. I take it he’s mimicking me since I seriously doubt he’s interested in the latest cost benefit analysis done by professors of public policy.

Its these little moments that I’ve come to appreciate the most about being a dad.

Been a little vague on the details in this journal on my current work schedule since we used up our maternity/paternity leave, but basically it boils down to me and Hana working out arrangements at our respective workplaces that allows one of us to be home to keep an eye on the little one during the day. For now I have the early morning shift which involves me catching the first train into the city, and committing to a few hours of telework in the afternoon. Hana works from home in the morning and then heads in and stays as late as her office needs her in the evenings. One of the tradeoffs has been that we don’t see each other much during the week, but I can’t even put a value on the chance to spend with the little guy.

Of course we also have both monetary benefit of opting out of daycare, but above all we’ve been appreciating the piece of mind of not having to send him off by himself for several hours a day. We’ve been very glad that our offices were willing to let us work something out, being able to do this has taken away some of the sting that has come with the pay freezes and ongoing furlough threat. It has been a grueling schedule, but so far so good.

Been definitely sleep deprived but happy overall. Maybe the “baby brain,” we’re both still adjusting to this new state of consciousness, the past few weeks have been a blur. Just got back to work a few weeks ago, Hana is off until Mid-September, and then I’ll be taking 1-2 months paternity leave until election day. After that we’ll start our split work schedule, which sounds like it’ll work in theory, but we’ll have to see how it turns out. There are a bunch of logistical things we need to work out that we hadn’t thought of earlier, setting up the computer for remote access, upgrading our wireless plan, or getting a landline installed, etc.

On the sleep and milestones, we’ve been getting somewhat conflicting input from our books, so we’re taking it under advisement as general guidelines on what to expect. I suppose every kid is on their own individual plan, either the little guy is slightly ahead of schedule or maybe just a mellow little dude. Whenever he is fussy we read up on the literature and then feel a little guilty about how little he is complaining compared to the scenarios illustrated in the books. He hasn’t sleep through the entire night yet, but has had long periods of consecutive peaceful sleep, 4 hours between feedings was the longest so far, which may be too long for his age since he gets up very hungry. I’ve been noticing that he is slowly getting into a daytime nap schedule, I guess what they say about the mid-morning nap is true.

He’s been making eye contact, smiling and frowning and making verbal noises since week 2 or so, I wrote it off as a reflex, now at 6 weeks there’s no doubt that he’s interacting socially. Like the few times he was able to sneak by the towel I was using while changing him and give me a hose down, he had a great big smile like it was the funniest thing ever! He’s also getting pretty strong, he grabs onto me now when I carry him, can hold his neck up for short periods of time, and is repositioning himself with his legs and arms when he sleeps on me. He’s also filling out well, doubled his weight and is getting longer. He has rolled over from his back to his tummy a few times, but its only in one direction, have to keep an eye on him in case he gets stuck.

My folks came up for a couple of weeks in June, spent a lot of time just hanging out around the house. They are already making plans for another visit in the fall, maybe Xmas time. They were actually thinking about visiting the Boston where my Dad went to medical school and my older brother was born, apparently they hadn’t been there since they left. It was interesting to hear the parallels for us having our first born in DC. Eventually we’d like to fly him home for a visit but we might wait until he is a little bit older for that.

Job market continues to pick at me. I’ve been constantly reminded of the new reality that apparently having a graduate degree is no longer a good indicator of job placement in this economy, the supply of jobs out there is totally out of sync with the demand for recent grads in all fields. Unfortunately in the current economy all of us are expendable and replaceable, fancy degrees and impressive work experience and resumes don’t matter anymore. Throw in the student loan burden due to these crazy tuition costs in recent years and I’m wondering if the jobs don’t start coming back we’re going to see a generation of folks tied to non-dis-chargeable debt.

One thing I’ve noticed about being a father now is that my attitude towards careers has changed a bit in terms of focus, about a year ago I was set on certain job paths, now I’m more open to alternate paths, really whatever it takes to provide for the family. We even discussed briefly whether it would make sense for me to work part-time, something that I wouldn’t have considered earlier, but now seems like an option to consider. For us going forward securing some kind of steady income and job security are major keys in this economy, so far I haven’t seen anything else that would compel me to make a jump from where I am now. It has been a sobering reality to talk to people with similar credentials that upon hearing where I currently work I find out that they have been begging to even get an interview for similar position, anything to just get a foot in the door. It’s tough times, that’s for sure.

Geocities shut down last week, this was my last post on the kaulapi site:

Probably the last post on this site before Geocities goes poof. I’m just about moved over to the mirror site, although I’m kind of wondering what kind of format this journal should take on from here on. Since I’ve wrapped up school and the bar exam I’ve been keeping pretty busy just enjoying the change of pace. I started my new division at work a few weeks ago, and have been wrapping up my last assignment to make for a smooth transition.

Bar results should be coming out shortly, but with the job market the way it has been, I’m relatively calm as my current job situation will not be changing anytime soon, pass or fail. I’d like to pass the first time and get it over with but I’m fortunate in my situation that there is about zero pressure. Stepping away from the study of law has given me a moment to reflect and reaffirm some of the fatal flaws of our legal education system, which I think can be summed up as 3-4 year long intellectual pissing match between very competitive and bright personality types.

All in all I’m just enjoying life, amazed at just how quickly chapters close, others open. More on this later on the other side. It’s been an interesting decade years on this geocities site. Hopefully be many more.

Pretty quiet for August, still recouping from the mini-marathon that is the July bar exam. Plus I’ve been pretty busy with work. More developments, some good, some just so-so. Meanwhile this past weekend I went up to Wilmington and the Brandywine Valley, saw some gardens, and another part of the country. Drove down the Delaware shore to Rehobeth and Bethany Beach, ate some mean Blue Crabs and Fried Chicken. Burned through several hundred miles of country side.

Finished my last final a few days ago.  It hasn’t sunk in just yet, but barring some suddenly stringent grading policy, I should be a Juris Doctor officially now.  Part of me hasn’t accepted it just yet, thinking that I’ll believe it when I get that diploma in my hand.  In the meantime, I’m just enjoying not having to read any thick red/green/blue/brown books a t least for the time being.

Keeping an eye on the markets today, as I have been a lot lately, and noted that the DOW checked in just about 50% of the peak we saw this past summer 2008.  That’s a pretty significant statistic, 50% down now if your portfolio tracked the major stock indexes.  Before I shutdown my workstation for the day I took a look at a few of my account balances and cringed the thought of what the latest -3% drop might do for some of my long term accounts already in a sea of red for the year.  I’m sure that I’m not alone in this boat, a lot of people I talk to are talking about painful losses, others just don’t bother to check in since they know that its bad bad bad.

All this got me thinking about a possible breaking point for 401k contributions, and the start of what might just be an overall downward trend, if things were to continue going this way.  In breaking point I mean that at some point I could see a significant number of 401k participants might just fold their cards down and refuse to play.  It goes to the statutory structure of 401k deferred tax retirement plans.  You pay a portion of your paycheck tax free into a retirement account that you can’t touch without penalty, until you are of retirement age.  To sweeten the pot, your employer matches a certain percentage (1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, etc.) as part of a benefit package.  Depending on the setup, you can then invest this money into regular securities on the market, or certain designated index funds proscribed by your employer.  The additional benefit is that any gains you make on your account are tax deferred until retirement, at which every withdrawal from your account is subject to income tax.

Logically, there are several benefits to participating in a 401k program, but most powerful are the tax deferred incentive for contributions, and the tax-deferred status for gains.  However both of these benefits are tied to a single assumption that has been challenged in the recent market trends – an aggregate positive rate of return over time.  Everything is fine when the market is appreciating at an exponential rate in boom time, but in prolonged recessions marked by triple digit losses in almost all sectors on consecutive days, weeks, at some point the incentives for contributing to a 401k, will be canceled out by compounding losses in the stock market.

I’m getting a sense that what might be coming up, could be a breaking point for 401k contributions to zero, or at the very least, to the minimum employer match.  Depending on each company’s set up, and fund allocation, we’re most likely looking at a 10%-15% drop on the year so far across the board, given the drops in the major indexes.  With a SWAG estimate of 20%-25% tax rate, you can see that if the mounting losses continue, at some point in the near future they’ll meet or cancel out any tax benefit from a 401k contribution.  If and when this happens, I could see a shift in behavior for those who are able to scraped by to meet the max ($15,500 for 2008, $16,500 for 2009) for the past few years, even despite all the economic turmoil in the markets, to one of cash savings and liquidity.  In other words, things are so bad that even the most aggressive 401k contributors would conform to 401k deposits of 5% or lower.

One would think that a change in investment strategy of this magnitude would surely have a significant affect the overall market, which would indicate an accelerating or a market sell off.  From a very basic sense, I think this makes a lot of sense.  I’ve been looking at what has been happening lately with the markets, and have been feeling more and more discouraged, thinking “whats the point?”  Why save the money for later when it can just depreciate by double digits in a single day?  I’d be better off putting that money into cash, and then eventually into US treasuries or some kind of short term CD.  This might lose against inflation, but at least it wouldn’t go down in value.  Then again, maybe the best strategy for this market in the short term is to simply not play.

Lame disclaimer: I own some publicly traded stocks, bonds, and other securities in the market, some in regular investment accounts, others in tax deferred accounts and others in retirement accounts none of which are doing particularly well so for in 2008 or 2009.  Therefore, none of this commentary is intended to, or should be taken as investment advice in any shape or form, express or implied.  These are all just random thoughts and observations that a novice could do in these interesting financial times.