Kaulapi World

Thought I’d kill some time uploading a post. As the title suggests its a little after one and I am sitting in the Amtrak waiting area of union station waiting for the 3:15am train to New York. I’m scheduled to meet with some attorneys for work, the trip was initially supposed to be a 2 day gig, but ended up being a one day affair. Given my alternate work schedule it was a little tricky to free up some time to make the trip up the night before, so this why I’m most likely the most overdressed person in the station right now.

A little surprised how crowded the station is at this hour. Only wish there was a cafe or something open where I could hang out. The Amtrak announcement TV has already gone through a few cycles already. Mostly security notices and the usual, I’m glad I was able to arrange travel by train vs flying. Come to think of it, it’s been a while since I flew. Maybe the last work trip?

Things have been very busy lately, work, watching the little guy grow up. He’s saying a few words, in cadence like full sentences, although its still in baby talk for now. Latest on the budget front is another threat of a shutdown looming this Friday. I’ve gotten so sick and tired of worrying about it that I try not to talk too much of it, but obviously ts on the mind.

Coming up on the end of October and we’re looking at the first snow of the year, much earlier than usual.  The forecasts are calling for 1-3 inches in the area, with temps cold enough to have some sticking.  Wonder if the little guy is ready for the cold white stuff falling from the sky.  We just got him the first of his winter clothes, so the timing ended up being just about right.  The colder weather has made it a little trickier getting him out for walks and such, now that he’s up and running.

Meanwhile my work has been coping with the ongoing budget uncertainty and have begun outlining potential actions to make up for a budget shortfall.  We’ve gotten through yet another one hurdle relatively unscathed, a number of concessions in exchange for taking layoffs off the table, but I have a feeling that this trend will continue for the rest of FY 2012 and beyond.  Still keeping an eye on the super committee which is supposed to come up with that $1.2T in cuts before Thanksgiving.  Also technically things could shut down a week earlier based on the current CR.  There have been rumors about another 1 month CR in the works, but then that will just extend the guessing game a few weeks down the road.

All of this coming at a time where I’m enjoying the actual subject matter, day-to-day operations of my work.  Since my transfer to the new division a few years ago I’ve gotten a different perspective entirely.  In retrospect it makes me wonder why I hadn’t make the move earlier given my particular area of interest and developing skill sets.  With all the news of the crappy economy and job market, I can’t help but question whether law school was the best idea.  I’m working in an area and on projects that would be extremely interesting to former law students despite not being officially retained as an attorney.  I could’ve been in this position even if I had never gone to law school.  I’ll be paying for that decision literally for years to come.

Next two weeks have the potential to be another battle over the 2012 budget that might result in another shutdown.  This time around it sounds like we’re headed to another continuing resolution (CR) that will stretch things out a few months.  With the new super committee set to knock out a few trillion in budget cuts come November, there is some indication that a CR is in the works, and things will keep on plugging along before the last 2 weeks of the fiscal year are up.

The uncertainty hasn’t gone away at all, despite it being relatively quiet in the news lately.  Been keeping tabs on some unofficial sources to try and anticipate whats around the corner, but anyone’s guess is probably close to reality at this point.  I’ve retrenched my positions similarly to hour the April and August budget/debt battles played out, fully ready for the possibility of a furlough or shutdown, a matter of several months now instead of a few.  Looking at some of my account positions I would normally feel a little rich if not for the prospect of having to rely on these balances to keep afloat for an expended period of time.

All of this has created a considerable amount of stress, at the same time I’ve noticed how many of the normal distractions that exist in our modern American society can either serve as healthy coping mechanisms or dangerous blinders.  I’m all for the occasional healthy distraction when things get too intense, but too often I look around and am reminded that none of us can really afford to take the eye off of the ball even for a moment, least we get blindsided.

Been a busy week for natural disasters, first the earthquake, and now a hurricane on its way in less than 72 hours or so.  Neither of these are very common in the DC area, I should feel more like we’re back at home.  Last time I was in the strike zone of a hurricane came while I was on Lanai a few years ago, thankfully it passed well south of us, but it was enough to make us cancel some of ocean activities planned. The time before that was Hurricane Iniki, which was headed straight for us at one point, bu then made a sharp turn towards Kauai at the last minute.

The best case scenario now sounds like we’ll get a ton of rain and wind, but nothing too serious.  the worst case scenario is that we get a direct hit, and then well that might be interesting.  Will need to do an inventory of supplies around the house and preparations in case the power goes out for an extended period of time. I remember getting ready for Iniki, when I was back at home, it seemed a lot like a camping trip, tying down loose things in the garage with a tarp, filling up the ice chests and lining up canned food, propane, and charcoal for the hibachi.

The naming of storms has an interesting twist on atlantic side, they tend to be names that are somewhat in use like Katrina, Rita, Dennis, Hugo, and Bob, while the pacific storms are more unique, Iniki, and Ewa.  I suppose it makes it a little more friendly sounding, but I have to think that it can also have a dangerous disarming affect as well.

Took a family day trip just out of town, to a nearby farm that let’s people come by and pick their own produce, whatever is in season at the time. We started off with yellow peaches, moved on to tomatoes, and blackberries before our bin was full, when we got back to the store to pay for things, we realized what a great deal it was. That explained the large crowd, interestingly the parking lot was fill of a lot dc and va plates, most of the visitors were actually Hispanic and Asian, I saw at least a handful of diplomatic plates and luxury cars.

Just as we were wrapping up, a huge storm cloud blew in, dropped a swimming pool worth of water on the crowd. It was refreshing, being outside getting caught in the rain, the little guy seemed both puzzled and amazed at the sight of all that water coming down at once, I realized that this was his first time experiencing a thunderstorm outside.  A few kids and adults took to running around in the rain, being that they were already soaked after getting caught out in the fields and it didn’t make a difference if they got more drenched. Something very simple and cleansing about the rain coming down, sudden and unexpected, but fully welcome.

Driving back I reflected a bit on how different the landscape and way of life seemed just a short drive from dc, and all of the crap that comes with the territory of living and working in the district. I had actually bookmarked on my phone a thread to the straw poll taking place in Iowa that day for the republican nomination, thinking that I might want to check in on it. ended up having so much fun picking fruits that I forgot I even had a smartphone at all.

Coming up on more milestones in life, need to remind myself to fully appreciate how great things have turned out so far, despite the usual and unusual setbacks that are more just another part of life. Some can’t really be considered setbacks of they open up to new opportunities in life just waiting around the corner.

I came across this linked C-SPAN clip from one of the economic blogs that I’ve been reading since the great recession came to a head in late 2008 when everything and anything was seriously FUBAR when it came to the financial and politcal state of the country.  I remember appreciating the authors candor to how seriously fucked up things were at that time, and how the policy fixes being crafted at the time ran the risk of putting us in a situation where we would be seeing the same old shit again in just a few years time.

The clip itself features two distinguished senators from both sides of the the aisle actually debating  some of the more underlying, but arguably more meaningful aspects of the ongoing debt ceiling debate.  One of them has come up in past conversation with friendly D-bags over the years, mostly with scorn to his cost-cutting ways.  The other, was once a candidate for the presidency, who many voted for out of default, not out of any meaningful admiration or inspiration.

This clip which I’m sure won’t see the light of day on any major cable news network does raise the question to what is really going on in Washington DC these past few weeks.  Are we really talking about meaningful reductions in government spending or are we just hearing another episode of partisan political theater to prevent our elected officials from making the decisions that are too politically difficult to make?

Flashbacks to 2008, how many hill staffers were put in a hard place answering overwhelming public outcry something like 1000:1 against the bailout of wall street while knowing their respective member had already made up their mind to go along with the leadership?  How many of them have wised up to the reality of the power structures in this country today and how many are still living in fantasy land?  I’m pretty sure that in the next 48 hours there will be some deal to raise the debt ceiling, this current battle is more smoke and mirrors, I’m more concerned with what reality might be waiting for us around the corner, one that won’t give a shit if we  consider ourselves democrat or republican or independent.

Came across an interesting CNBC interview this morning, covered by some of the financial blogs that I read.  The guest commentator was a representative from more lesser known credit rating company that had already downgraded the US credit rating from a AAA to AA.  In contrast to the big rating agencies who have been talking about the possibility of a downgrade, this company went ahead and did it.

Mentioned in the interview is position that debt ceiling debate is nothing but a red herring, the real issue towards the creditworthiness of the US, as with any other country is the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is growing at an alarming rate, similar to Portugal, one of the famous PIIGS nations.  It goes back to what I have been thinking myself, that no matter what form of new revenue we are able to pull in, the debt/GDP ratio will likely stay at a very dangerous level.  The commentator also addressed the dollar as being the world reserve currency in addition to having a printing press may help paper things over for a while, but over time reliance on it will not help the overall situation.

The commentator also briefly got into the differences between delinquency and default, alluding to the fact that a lot of the rhetoric about financial Armageddon should the Aug. 2 deadline come without a deal may not come if the markets only see the US as delinquent on paying the interest on its debts.  From what I’ve been gathering, that is a valid critique, since the US will still be generating some amount of revenue even after the deadline, the question of default really comes down what priority does the administration apply to which obligations to pay, and which ones to not pay.  There really is discretion to the sitting administration to either continue servicing the debt, or pay entitlements, military contractors, federal salaries, etc. first.  it seems like if there is a default, the timing is the thing to watch out for.  If we do default in early august, it might be a self-inflicted wound for political gain to the current administration.  If it is later down the road, then I’d say both parties are to blame.

Meanwhile congress is announcing their plans to keep in session until the debt ceiling is raised, stating that the US will not default on its obligations, or something to that matter.  I guess it really depends on what one’s definition of default is. Given the way things are looking, we’ve already suffered a default on the political process.

Example of DC cynicism: Whatever the crisis is facing the economy, the powerful elite are “handling it” in the form of closed door meetings.  Regardless of which political affiliation you find yourself cheering on realize that they have too much at stake to disrupt the status quo, so ignore the rhetoric you see on the tv and print, recognize its all a political charade.  Once they get the deal done, it’ll be back to normal, you can continue partying, shopping, watching ESPN and reality TV.  To me this demonstrates a bizarre mixture of blind faith to compensate and distract from a collective helplessness to forces that are bigger and unseen.  The cynicism is more alarming to what it really says: that since most of us are so insignificant to the powers that shape our world, really we are all expendable.  No matter how high you can soar, within a chain of command or bureaucracy, titles, position, power, responsibility, connections, salaries can be taken away from you on a whim, by a single individual, or group of individuals in a closed door meeting.

Been on edge for the last few days, really for the most part of this year. Some of it has to do with the looming budget situation which I may have been overloading myself with reading and my own style of analysis.  But something about this latest round of political theatrics has me wondering if there is something that a lot of us aren’t thinking about.  Maybe it is fact that we as a country even need to have a discussion about the deficit at all.  The established school of economics is that deficits don’t matter, the last 100+ years of fiscal and monetary policy have made the country very wealthy and prosperous.  We have a number of societal safety needs that were spawned from the great depression to ensure that nobody will be left behind, nobody will starve or go homeless.  The established school of political science has said that are the remaining military and economic superpower, champion of the cold war, and policeman of the world.  We are not Greece.  Then why are we being held captive by the bond raters and growing CDS spreads?  The urgency of some of the commentary recently kind of shatters this illusion of life that a lot of us have grown accustom to, that maybe we really are out of money and out of time.

The large majority of folks in this town are just along for the ride on various levels. This is a company town after all, and the federal government is it. It doesn’t matter much if you are a  federal employee, a contractor (revolving door and double-dipper), lobbyist, non-profit advocate, university employee, or a private sector employee whose business relies on federal contracts. Pretty much everyone in this area is either directly or indirectly dependent on the federal government operating.  I have to include myself to this, to a certain extent, however I refuse to keep my eyes closed to the writing on the wall, and just assume that everything will pass, and it’ll be business as usual.  Even if this is just another example of beltway theater, I don’t want to be caught by surprise should things really get interesting.

Over the years I’ve tracked our personal finances both in terms of investments and day-to-day case accounts as short and long term budgeting tool.  I made a visual marker for each financial milestone on my spreadsheet, green for raises and bonuses, red for bills, one-time payments that don’t come very often.  All of this debt talk has made me draw sort of a financial line in the sand as to when we might have to face the reality of not getting a paycheck.  Given the ongoing uncertainty in the past few weeks on the debt ceiling, I’ve resorted to drawing red lines for every month for the remainder of the year.  Now my once colorful spreadsheet is covered in a sea of red.  Fortunately this being a digital file, I can clear some of the red to clear if things somehow start getting better.

Obviously I’ve been closely following the ongoing battle over the debt ceiling, being that both me and Hana are gainfully employed by Uncle Sam, the prospect of a loss of a paycheck due to a government shutdown is something that we both pay great attention to.  I have to admit it has become a little tiring though, both while working at the office and when teleworking, I have C-SPAN going on in the background listening to the floor debates in both houses.

My overall take on the whole mess is that we need to have a serious conversation about the future of the federal budget in terms of the big ticket spending items the biggest which are entitlements and military engagements, right now the discussion has gotten so polarized on partisan lines that it is impossible to even have a meaningful conversation as to what we policies and programs we want as a nation, what is the realistic cost of those things.  I’ve spoken with folks from both party affiliations, and it seems like all they can do is blindly spout the party line, often in rapid succession.  I wanted to ask them point blank if they even understood the position that they were advocating.

As fiercely independent minded as I am, I have to say that I am leaning slightly towards the position of spending cuts making the larger proportion of the deficit solution as opposed to revenue building.  This is despite the fact being that particular party spent the last 10 years piling on to the deficit like money was going out of style.  I still think in this situation spending cuts is the way to go over revenue building.  I liken it to how an average family might deal with the prospect of hitting their limit of their credit card or general line of credit.  The most logical thing to do is to decrease spending relative to the proximity to the credit limit, if it is a few months expenses away, then maybe you spread the cuts over several months, but if you’re right up on it, then immediate cuts in spending are in order.

In contrast, the building revenue side for the typical family would be amounting to the family to just make more money.  It is important to note that longer term revenue sources would be most helpful, not merely selling some household items, or by simply working longer hours, both of which are either one-time, or temporary increases in income.  A more basic definition of revenue increases to what governments think of in terms of raising taxes when it comes to the average family is to go across the street and rob the house of the richer, more affluent neighbors.   Even if this was a widely accepted solution, it would be temporary, because eventually the rich neighbor might move out of the neighborhood.

Someone I recently spoke with seemed totally uninterested in the prospect of an actual default, or credible threat of default.  Their perspective was that congress would pass something at the last minute possibly, and it would be back to business as usual.  I find it hard to tell if people who hold that opinion are either wiser than me to the nature of DC politics, or just have their head in the sand.  It seems like a lot of crazy shit is going on right now not only at home, but around the world to be that oblivious.  To me, at the very least it would be helpful to take a moment to look around and get somewhat ready in case the shit really does hit the fan.

There have been many “first years” that I have had to reflect on in my short life, most of them have been tied to academic programs, first year of college, grad school, law school, and most recently, the first year life being a non-student. However, this recent first year as a father is probably the most significant by far both in terms of life changing perspective and new experiences.

Although it is cliche to say that time goes by fast when you’re busy, this year blitzed by coinciding with each milestone the little guy hopped over. Looking at pictures I remember when he was just a little baby home from the hospital, sleeping most of the time, immobile and more or less oblivious to the world around him. Now I’m literally chasing him around the house while he explores every little corner and every little thing he can get his hands on. Latest thing is that he’s started to do figure eights around me when I’m sitting down.

Personality and temperament are starting to show much more, he is an extrovert, likes to play and interact with people, even with new people he may be shy at first, but quickly warms up. He seems to prefer physical contact even if he is playing with something else, he’ll rest his foot on me, or lean against my leg. He seems very confident with his body, pushing/pulling things out of the way instead of going around them, or simply climbing over things head first. When he sees something he wants, he makes a beeline for it and isn’t afraid to voice an opinion about it. He also has a little rascal side to him, definitely not afraid to test the limits of his mom and dad.

The other most significant day to day change has got to be the work schedule that we’ve adopted in order to be able to take care of the little guy. I’m undeniably a morning person now, I find myself waking up close to 4am every day including the weekends. I’ve found that I am extremely efficient and productive in the early morning hours, and it has shown at work. Its worked out so well that even when we decide to transition off of this schedule, I may try to keep some of it in place.