Kaulapi World

It’s looking like a busy summer alright, already looking forward to the Chicago trip to go to Patty’s wedding, visit the kid brother, and meet up with my folks all in a short weekend. After that I’ll be hunkering down on the books for my corporations class this summer, keeping going with the law training. I’m hoping that with just one class to focus on I’ll be better position to pull of a decent enough performance as an add on for the last semester, build more experience and push on through to the 3rd year. Juggling 4 courses and working full time was pretty challenging.

First day of summer session was today, first impressions of a course are always memorable being that you don’t really know what to expect at first. So far I’m finding some interesting side observations on the readings so far which comes to somewhat of a surprise as that this course isn’t one that at first thought comes to mind as one that I would be interested off the back. I think its the public policy training and all the economic theory that I’ve crammed into my brain that gives me an interest in this area, one things for sure, I’m not going to be closing off any possible interests that might develop through this course of study.

Having some interesting dreams. The theme lately has been that I keep finding secret tunnels and doors in my apartment that lead to hidden rooms, corridors and exits that I never imagined possible. At times I’m able to peal away the concrete foundation and walls with my hands to reveal another passageway. The spooky thing is that some of the rooms I’ve been in before in previous dreams, and they are over the top extravagant, like a luxury hotel room overseeing a cliff with wall to wall, ceiling to floor windows. In stumbling on these rooms I kid myself in not realizing that this was here all this time, and I had been confining myself to only a handful of small rooms.

I think there is some symbolic references to what is going on in my personal life and perceptions, especially in the past month or so, persons of whom I am very protective of in some difficult times. I’ve noticed that I’m not anxious at all in these dreams though, in fact I’m more thrilled at the prospect of finding rooms and passageways that I’ve overlooked, or been too busy to notice before. It seems like every time I look there is someplace new to explore, and each time I feel strangely at peace.

Linkes 5/21/2007
9mm violence on the rise in Honolulu
Ron Paul Can’t say that, can he? Sure, why not?
Foreign Policy of Freedom - Bomb or Subsidize
Why China must be scapegoated
Ron Paul - SC debates party crasher
Live Science - top 10s geek style
Torture - its ok now?
DC demographics shifts, compared on a national scale.

For the several months now I’ve been following the coverage of several housing related blogs and informational websites that present a very compelling list of arguments why it might be a very bad idea to buy real estate in the current market conditions. Although many of them are focusing on the San Francisco bay area, I think the rationale can be applied to other metro areas that have seen exponential rises in housing prices since 2000. I think the authors have to have laid out very well reasoned yet painfully simple economic analysis which I have yet to see sufficient evidence on the other side to present a compelling case. One author addresses just about every sales pitch that has been thrown around by real estate agents and mortgage brokers about why everyone should be buying a house, and its always a good time to buy.

Anyone who has taken a high school class in economics, or even glanced at an Econ 101 book should be able to understand why many of the pro-housing advocates in this current market make no sense at all in their sales pitches. Unfortunately emotion and fear of market exclusion is a very effective tool at getting people to stop using their heads and make very poor financial decisions that could haunt them for the rest of their lives. In many ways I liken the current state of the real estate industry a lot like the diamond industry, the luxury sports car industry, selling overpriced, over-marketed consumer goods that are suck up a substantial amount of the average person’s disposable income, guaranteed to depreciate in value, and ultimately amount to nothing more than another meaningless status symbol when it really should be something more practical: a roof over your head and land to maintain and maybe pass on to your heirs one day.

The subprime stock implosion and mainstream media coverage of toxic/exotic loans that sound a lot like credit cards with their low introductory rates that double or quadruple after a couple of years is all troubling. Especially since a lot of these loans were apparently given to all being given to people who normally could not qualify for a standard, fixed rate loan. They were banking on the fact that their houses would appreciate at 25%, 50% a year or something, and they would eventually sell it for a profit, or refinance the mortgage and take more cash out on the equity. Unfortunately now that the real estate market is tanking, it looks like it’ll just get worse as more and more mortgages reset to the higher rates, and more foreclosures go through. In the next couple of years there might be a lot of broke homeless people with bad credit finding it hard to find someplace to even rent.

I think that everyone who is thinking about buying a house or condo should at least read and digest the wealth of information available online before taking the debt plunge. The housing market is so out of whack right now that it could be financially fatal to buy in the current inflated market conditions.

Housing Blog Linkes:
The Bubble Meter
Housing Panic
Marin Bubble
Hawaii Real Estate bubble
DC housing blues

Thought I’d devote a post or two on the ongoing housing bubble in the DC metro area that I’ve been keeping an eye on for the past year or so. I’ve been noticing at how ridiculously inflated the asking prices and tax assessments are for properties around the area that aren’t even close to what they should be. I’m no building contractor or structural expert appraiser, but there’s simply no way in hell these houses are worth as much as they are asking for. Like any other economic good or service, the market is determined for how much a prospective customer is willing to fork over for ownership. Unfortunately, I think the current housing situation is a prime example of how impulsive and stupid the American consumer is, following the herd into the illusion of home ownership as a means of lucrative investment, and status symbol.

I think the market is tanking, slowly but surely right now. There seem to be a lot more houses popping up for sale around my neighborhood, in fact there are right now 3 properties for sale on the street I currently live on, one of which sat on the market for about 6 months without any buyers, was taken off the market, and put back on again. the other two just went for sale end of 2006. A quick search of tax records lists the 2008 Assessments for the properties on my street:

$739,530
$752,150
$684,490
$726,730
$722,730 (For sale?)
$752,150 (For sale?)
$722,180 (For sale?)

Most of these houses are painfully small for the assessed price, granted they are in a really nice neighborhood and close to the metro, still you really have to be an idiot to be willing to pay that much money for such a small and relatively run down property. Especially when a further search in tax records reveals that these properties sold for about half or even a third as much just 4 years ago. Crazy. Of course there are some people who like to say that we all should’ve bought back in 2003 or 2004 before the market took off. this means nothing, since relying on hindsight (and luck) is such a bullshit point to make.

Unfortunately our society is brainwashed into making financial decisions driven by fear of exclusion or being perceived as being behind the curve of the joneses. I heard a lot over the past couple of years from people that made a lot less money than me that I was in danger of being priced out of the market if I didn’t buy soon, that I was putting to waste the my good credit and not taking advantage of the shiny mortgage that my professional salary would qualify me for.

Now that it seems like real estate is now a depreciating investment, and foreclosures are running rampant nationally due to predatory and fraudulent loans, I’m glad that I stuck to my guns in saying that “there no fucking way that tiny 3 bd house on the corner is worth $1.4M.” and “theres no way you can convince me that going that much into debt is worth it.”

Linkes 3/8/07
More conspiracy theories, but it Can’t happen here.
War game theory in economic terms, Raptors in Okinawa.
The system works? who’s complaining?
I like the free books part
Even spooks are turning green turning green, Job outlook not good in 2007

Busy past two weeks, things have been moving at work, a welcome change of pace, things were getting bogged down in the process of how things get done, but otherwise business as usual I suppose. Got snowed in on Wednesday, trucked the hill in my snow boots to go to the store which was an adventure with all the unplowed snow still on the ground.

Linkes 2/4/07 - 2/17/07
Mistrial in Watada court-marshal, free speech and the military
One of the reasons why living in Hawaii costs so much
Badgers Badgers Everywhere
Medical Aid in Cambodia
Secret contracts tend to cost a lot
63% now antiwar hopefully in time for round II?
24 Fiction and the TV generation and real life.
Can’t happen here? too late.
War on America waged from from within hiding behind the extremist myth?
With us or against us
Cody’s Books closing in Berkeley
Hawaii market refixing refixing? Kaka’ako apartments

End of the year, amazed at how fast it went, lots of stuff going on in the world and in life. This time of year is good to look back and reflect, look forward to whatever is in store for the future. It seems like the past couple of days have been pretty crazy as well, a former president dies peacefully at home, a former dictator gets hung, my country hits a bloody mark of 3,000 citizen soldiers killed in a pointless war. Can’t help but feel a little guilty about the bounties of life that I have secured for myself so far one being that my choice of profession has not lead me to be stuck in a foxhole in the middle of a sandpit.

Spent the weekend taking a closer look at the city, bringing back memories from my summer as an intern living in Dupont circle, exploring the city and experiencing a new place, new job, new time. got a chance to hangout at Kramerbooks for the first time in a long while. Kind of missed the excitement of living someplace new for the first time, the gritty urban-ness of the city streets, riding the train at odd hours of the night, connecting with fellow young people from all over the country and the world.

Looking forward to what 2007 will bring. More work, more school of course, hopefully more just living life. Its been fun so far, lets see whats next.

Well, one more final down, and I’m almost pau with my third semester as an evening law student. Technically it’s past midnight, so it should be the 13th, but I’m too lazy to change the numbering. Have to say that I’m more or less exhausted now, both mentally and physically this field of study takes its toll on you. the sheer amount of information being crammed in, the pressure of the idiosyncratic grading scheme and the high stakes of the grades on your chances of being gainfully employed one day. Mix it in with a 9-5 job, especially a professional one, and all together it makes for a good recipe for a stressed out and strung out existence.

And I’m still not totally pau yet. I have some write-ups and memos to finalize, hopefully I’ll be able to tie it all up by the end of the week, and then really be finished. Its been an interesting but busy semester for sure, I’ve learned a whole lot about this field, got some real life experience, and conquered a few more classes. In some ways things are easier this time around, other ways not so much. At least it isn’t as cold tonight as it was last week.

Putting in the long hours you get to know (or get on the nerves) of the employees at various eateries and coffee shops in the city. I think after sitting in one place for 7 hours on end, you start to come across as more than just a dedicated student and more of a fanatic/loser - why would anyone be that engrossed in their books? Also the nature of this field is that it leads to lively discussions with your study partners on the principles and reasonings behind the concepts. Anyone within earshot of us that hasn’t studied this stuff probably thinks we’re fucking nuts.

Then theres those poor souls who have gone through (and survived) the trial by fire. either its the slight nod of acknowledgment from the old gentleman in a hat who mentioned that he went to an area law school many years ago and has since retired, to the caffeinated, middle aged woman pushing a stroller smirking at my conversation on felony-murder. They’ve been there, seen that. I still don’t know how much of it them saying “hang in there” or “well, sucks to be you. ”