Shakeup in Iowa
Wednesday, January 4th, 2012Not even a few days into the new year, the first primary/caucus of the presidential 2012 election. Lots of observations from the Iowa Caucuses, the main headline is that yet another frontrunner in the Republican primaries has emerged, that in Santorum who just lost to the assumed frontrunner Romney by a total of 8 votes. A lesser story is that it was a Ron Paul clocking in at 21%. With the remaining candidates further back at in the lower teens and single digits. Given all the talk about how unelectable Ron Paul is, the fact that he came a statistical tie for the top 3 speaks volumes for the how out of touch the major media outlets are to what the average person may be thinking in this day and age.
Another little twist on the Iowa caucus results. Regardless of the outcomes of total votes, if a candidate gets at least 10% of the total vote, they get at least 2 delegates for the convention. In other words, if the 2012 primary result in a brokered convention, there is no difference between 13% and 10% (2 delegates each for 4th and 5th) and 25%, 25% and 21% (7 delegates each for 1st, 2nd, 3rd).
Looking forward to New Hampshire which is already assumed to be Romney territory from the beginning, Ron Paul comes in a distinct second place, and Santorum is way off in the single digits. At some point all of this talk of electability or lack thereof should get ridiculous if the people keep electing him and awarding him delegates.