Kaulapi World

Spending a quiet new years at home, thinking back on a very eventful 2009 now coming to a close. Quite a few major life changes are in store for 2010, looking forward to it all for sure.

Geocities shut down last week, this was my last post on the kaulapi site:

Probably the last post on this site before Geocities goes poof. I’m just about moved over to the mirror site, although I’m kind of wondering what kind of format this journal should take on from here on. Since I’ve wrapped up school and the bar exam I’ve been keeping pretty busy just enjoying the change of pace. I started my new division at work a few weeks ago, and have been wrapping up my last assignment to make for a smooth transition.

Bar results should be coming out shortly, but with the job market the way it has been, I’m relatively calm as my current job situation will not be changing anytime soon, pass or fail. I’d like to pass the first time and get it over with but I’m fortunate in my situation that there is about zero pressure. Stepping away from the study of law has given me a moment to reflect and reaffirm some of the fatal flaws of our legal education system, which I think can be summed up as 3-4 year long intellectual pissing match between very competitive and bright personality types.

All in all I’m just enjoying life, amazed at just how quickly chapters close, others open. More on this later on the other side. It’s been an interesting decade years on this geocities site. Hopefully be many more.

It’s September and its been a nice change of pace not being a student. No case books to read, no late night lectures to attend. It seems like I’ve been in the student mindset for ages now, at least 23+ years now, not counting pre-school. I suppose it was a long journey, from time to time I glance at the freshly framed diploma I have leaning against the wall, being that I’m not sure yet where exactly to hang it up. I need to figure out how the shelves and other furniture in the room line up first.

So in the meantime I’ve been just going to work, coming home, catching up on some netflix movies, cooking, being domestic, and cleaning up a few hefty piles of paper that I’ve collected over the years. Been coming up with some random finds and notes from my grad school years and before. I seem to be a true packrat when it comes to notes and other thoughts put down on paper.

Some interesting and vivid dreams lately. One a few nights ago, in my dream I was talking to a senior congressman at a fundraiser in a large reception ballroom. The conversation itself was very trivial at first, covering various small things, random thoughts here and there. There are a number of people milling about, socializing, networking what not, the occasional politico would stop by and say high, name drop and ass the member’s ass. I recall being somewhat interested in the conversation, but for the most part I was a little bored. Suddenly the member decisively turns to me, announces that he is about to address the crowd that had gathered in his honor, and asks me what I think he should say to them. Caught a little off guard at first, I pause a moment and then tell him that he could talk about his usual promises and commitments he is setting to the people for the new election year, the programs, the federal money that he is bringing his home state. Then I mention briefly that he could talk also talk about the oath of public office that he took many years ago to uphold the U.S. Constitution, to defend and protect it against all enemies foreign and domestic. The old man nods in silent agreement and then speaks aloud with a booming voice. The crowd is suddenly silent, and all eyes are focused on him, listening attentively. I slowly step backwards into the crowd and listen to his speech.

Pretty quiet for August, still recouping from the mini-marathon that is the July bar exam. Plus I’ve been pretty busy with work. More developments, some good, some just so-so. Meanwhile this past weekend I went up to Wilmington and the Brandywine Valley, saw some gardens, and another part of the country. Drove down the Delaware shore to Rehobeth and Bethany Beach, ate some mean Blue Crabs and Fried Chicken. Burned through several hundred miles of country side.

Bar prep has taken up most of my existence since the last posting. been going to classes, taking practice tests, and otherwise trying to keep focused and in a positive mindset. One plus is that I’ve taken some annual leave for the most of July, something that never was able to do during all of my previous final exam sessions.

Meanwhile the tab on the great bailout of 2008-2009 continues to climb. It’s been an interesting distraction from the studying reading up on all of the unprecedented economic and financial events over the past few years.

One of the gaps that I noticed from the first day of Econ 101 was the concept of “all things being equal” that applies to every economic model to correctly map out an economic theory to precision. Here is the supply curve and here is the demand curve, the point they meet is the equilibrium, sets the ideal price for an efficient market. In a way, Keynesian theory states that all things being equal, recessions and depressions can be avoided only by increased deficit spending and ever increasing access to credit.

What I took away from day one was that this assumption totally ignores the limitations to any theory that assumes laboratory-like conditions to describe something as subjective and chaotic as human behavior. This is the same criticism that hard science lobs at the soft sciences as being impossible to test empirically. Almost like having an inferiority complex to the hard sciences and overcompensating the quantitative analysis at the expense of the qualitative analysis of human behavioral nuances, economics runs the risk of getting an incomplete conclusions, and at worst, ignoring contrary evidence.

Another gap that I came across almost immediately was the concept of the rational market participant, that is, an individual given a certain amount of information about a market, will only pay a price accordingly to the supply and demand in the market. It goes to the heart of the assumption that people act rationally. I remember having a hard time accepting this theory on its face on the basis that very few people I know of act rationally at all when it comes to personal finance. You only have to take a look at the consumerist society to see how irrational the decisions that all of us make when it comes to buying things. Also, some of even the most established and respected economists have a difficult time maintaining their own personal finances, despite the assumption that they of all people should be in the best position to act rationally in a market.

Again it goes to the oversimplification of human behavior to force an empirical theory with the goal of being able to test it. Rather than just admitting that some systems may be to complex to quantify with a high level of certainty, economics is pushed out as a hard science and backing to many social policies and initiatives. Experimenting with these theories might be ok on a smaller level, given the risks can be assessed, and the decisions can be made on those risks. But really is it worth spending trillions of future taxpayer dollars that we don’t have on betting a soft science theory? Especially when we don’t even have the money to begin with, and are instead mortgaging the financial future of our unborn children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren?

All things being equal, that sounds pretty crazy, at the very least very reckless and irresponsible.

I find it interesting looking back at how I have developed my own views toward economic theory and analysis. I was always most interested in the human interactions to markets and economic policies, such as game theory, diminishing utility, and moral hazards. Over time I’ve come to the conclusion that people cannot be oversimplified into an economic model simply through quantitative analysis, and even more so any model that makes broad assumptions about human behavior is flawed and is vulnerable to the unseen, or black swan event.

Some background: I came to study economics relatively later in my academic training, partly because my first formal class was in high school disappointed me greatly as I thought it would be more of a course on personal finance and investments, instead it was focused on macro level with exercises on international trade and role playing on global markets. I think this course may have turned me away from taking econ in college. It wasn’t until after my undergrad that I took the basic college micro/macro econ as an unclassified graduate student at KCC. Later in grad school for policy analysis I got more robust training of micro and macro econ, along with statistics and econometrics. All of this in retrospect fit very well with the traditional Keynesian theory. In law school I picked up more of the operational understanding of economics through the regulation of financial instruments and commercial transactions, liabilities of creditor and debtors, and resolution of defaults through foreclosure and bankruptcy. Most recently, I’ve been learning about the personal finance side, retirement accounts, pensions, and labor law, all coinciding with most recent economic downturn.

There’s also the life observations, as much of my training has coincided with historically unprecedented economic times. My staple economic classes coincided with the government taking unprecedented steps monetary policy in more than 50 years. It was common for a professor to admit, after giving a lecture on a well established and accepted theory that what we were seeing in the real world at the time had never been seen before, and it immediately gave me cause to be skeptical of the theory I had just learned. In recent years following the dot-com boom and bust I’ve watched as the housing market has taken off and crashed hard, seen how many previously trumpeted assumptions and absolutes about personal finance and investing have been proven to be very very wrong. More than a few people I know have been hurt or crippled by ill-gotten financial advice that was seen as golden just a few years ago.

So it should not be surprising that from early on I started noticing some gaps in the economic theories and models that make up the generally accepted economic standard of today, which is deeply rooted in Keynesian monetary theory. The answer to an credit-induced recession is not to pump more credit into an already over-leveraged credit market. In an era of high volatility and extreme market uncertainty you cannot force consumers to consume and borrow more money than they are willing to take on, no matter how large the monetary incentives are.

Consistent with my other views on life, religion, politics, I refuse to drink the kool-aid and be indoctrinated into one view at the expense of other alternate viewpoints, especially when there is evidence contrary to the status quo. When a theory appears to be on shaky ground, its time to reassess and change course.

Vivid dreams lately. Going to an ancient temple, and was passing through an enormous stone courtyard full of religious statues and gardens. Along the way saw a lot of old friends from way back, some of whom I haven’t seen in years, all sort of hanging out in the courtyard. I recognized a lot of old wrestling buddies, some sparring in a stone lined ring practicing grappling or sumo, others just hanging out with other friends. Didn’t have time to stop and talk, but promised myself that I would stop by and catch up with them on my way back.

I think vivid nature of these dreams have bad something to do with the fact that I’ve been bogged down in bar prep, lots going on on many fronts. Cut down my work hours to about half time, allowing me more time to study and get back into somewhat of a regular work out schedule.

Was thinking about having a deep and insightful post for this entry, but honestly, I’m still recuperating and just chilling out from my last round of finals and readjusting back to work. Enjoying the new apartment, and life after night school. I just went to the school today to pick up my cap and gown, got borderline assaulted by the career center staff seeing what kind of prestigious sounding attorney position I had snagged post graduation.

As for me, I’m going to tough it out and reassess as appropriate, maybe after tha bar exam results come out, then a few months later, no matter what the circumstances may be. In the meantime, I’ve got a degree, and will see how far it’ll take me, either at my current agency or another. In the interim while I’m studying, I’ll be counting on Kina’s songs (as accompanied by her family) to keep me company.

At 3:22pm today I officially graduated, as in: the grade for my my last required class was posted online. The sick thing about law school is that even though in your mind you “get it” already as to how to study and take law school exams, the always lingering voice in the back of your head wonders if you did enough studying to pass muster and get through. One thing for sure, law school makes you respect the material, the curve, and of course your fellow classmates.

Looking back this semester was a bit of a mixed bag, in that it was kind of a throwaway officially, I only had to take one class to graduate, having enough credits from summer school over the past couple of years. On the other hand, one of my courses was a bar-related one, and the other 2 I had a personal interest in the subject matter. I could’ve cruised through this semester, but instead decided to take a full load and learn a few things. Wondering if it’ll be worth the extra tuition that I forked over though. ouch.